H1N1 - Swine flu pandemic declaration

The World Health Organization has declared H1N1 swine flu an official Level 6 pandemic - in the WHO's rating scheme. This means the world's vaccine industry will be rubbing their hands with glee because they can now switch from making vaccine for ordinary flu to pandemic vaccine, where the big money is to be made.

However companies are not likely to change production until they have finished their current production run of ordinary flu vaccine in July or August. That will be the case, even though that vaccine will be useless if swine flu behaves like previous pandemics and replaces the current, ordinary flu viruses. After all, it doesn't make financial sense to hang onto surplus stock when there are eager customers out there willing to buy it, whether it's effective or not.

The WHO's declaration of level six activates a slew of government pre-orders for pandemic vaccine. These will take precedence over recent orders for H1N1 vaccine. Countries that don't have pre-orders will face delays or increased charges, following the normal commercial process of supply and demand drives price.

Mild infectious outbreak

The WHO cautioned against over-reaction, as most cases of H1N1 have so far been relatively mild. The organisation had been under pressure not to declare a pandemic for such a mild virus but the pharmaceutical companies have been lobbying hard.

Unfortunately, the WHO officials have insisted that a flu pandemic is defined by how fast a novel flu virus spreads, and who it affects, not necessarily how severe it is. This is partly because the same virus can be mild in some people and severe in others, and partly because it can evolve.

Historically, in 1918, the last pandemic H1N1 started out mild, but its second wave was much more severe. There were sound reasons for this, whereby the virus latched onto the antiodies that had been created by the first outbreak and this allowed them easy access to disabling the immune system of victims.

This virus affects young people

Pandemic flu can also kill healthy young adults, not the very young and old like ordinary flu. "Approximately half the people who have died from this H1N1 infection have been previously healthy people," Keiji Fukuda, head of flu at the WHO, said on Tuesday, adding this had given the organisation "the most concern" but again, the causes are known and predictble.

"It is of greatest importance to continue surveillance of the virus worldwide," David Heymann, the deposed head of health security at the WHO. "Science cannot predict what course this virus will take as it continues to spread in humans." maybe that's why he was removed from office.

The population deserves answers and solutions to these problems and not to be used as guinea pigs and an ever-increasing source of revenue for the exploitation of pharmaceutical companies, allegedly. Discuss!